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September 1999 opinions were:
September 28, 1999 - One down, three close
(maybe), and the rest? Will Congress cave? Who wins with shutdown?
September 22, 1999 - Slow but fast business at
appropriations. Appropriators need to take action if they are to avoid a shutdown.
September 10, 1999 - Major tax cut off the table
- good or bad for appropriations? I conclude that it is not good for the
appropriations process.
September 7, 1999 - Ponderous Congress and
"accidental" shutdowns. There could be a shutdown without anyone
wanting it - Congress takes its time to do things, and in this case this may mean a
shutdown.
September 1, 1999 - Where are appropriations?
It is getting late for action.
September 28, 1999 - One down, three close (maybe), and the
rest? Will Congress cave? Who wins with shutdown?
 | Congress has passed and the President signed one appropriation act. Congress has
agreed on three others (for a total of four that Congress itself could agree on), and
nothing else. The hard work is still ahead. A year's worth of effort now needs
to be compressed into three days. Obviously, Congress has to come up with a simple
continuing resolution (CR) if it is to retain any
credibility. (Simple means without extraneous policy making baggage.) The CR
would buy time, and allow Congressional leadership to figure out what to do to get out of
the box they are in. |
| Meanwhile, the President is having a grand time threatening vetoes if he does no have
his way. Sounds like he believes he has the upper hand. Nothing like having
had the 1995-96 experience and having learned from it. He does not mind if
there is a shutdown. The majority in Congress will take the blame. How would
you like to run for Congress after you caused the government to shut down again?
You are not likely to get reelected. Forcing a shutdown may be a good
strategy for the minority in Congress. |
| I am not going to belabor this point more. You can read about what others
say about all this, such as in the AP story carried today by Capitol Web (click). |
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September 22, 1999 - Slow but fast business at
appropriations.
| Eight days are left in the fiscal year. Appropriators need to make haste.
Not doing so will result in shutdowns for most of the Federal government. Without
action, the shutdowns will be automatic. The potential for an "accidental" shutdown is great. |
| But I hope that appropriators are making haste slowly. They cannot afford to mess
things up. There has been too much fast and loose work reported. They need to
act with deliberation. All the issues they need to address have been spelled out in
great detail, and simply pretending that they do not have an obligation to act responsibly
to address the issues will not make their responsibility for proper stewardship of the
Federal government go away. The obvious thing to do is to come to agreement with the
President, pass a continuing resolution, and get down to the business of governing rather
than running for office in November of 2000. Even if they want to postpone matters
to a President who will take office in 2001 they need to deal with the next year or so. |
| Hasty action is the last thing we need. By now most legislators should be
despairing at their ability to govern. They cannot expect to be taken seriously (or
to even justify their pay) if they cannot deal with something as basic as a budget for the
United States Government. But their despair should not lead them to make major
mistakes that we will all have to pay for later. The 1997 budget agreement was one
such mistake, which has come back to haunt them all. |
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September 10, 1999 - Major tax cut off the table - good or
bad for appropriations?
| Probably bad. The people who wanted a major tax cut will not give their opponent,
the President, an inch. And making appropriations happen is not the way to get even
with him. I cannot find any positives in this development as far as the
appropriations process is concerned and the budgets of Federal agencies for FY 2000.
Not a good way to go into the new millennium. |
| The point of the tax cut was to deny the Federal government the revenue needed to
support programs and thereby force reduced funding for the programs. Another way to
deny funding, of course, is to reduce appropriations. Cutting the budget is not
going to be easy, and definitely will make the process even longer. And there may be
vetoes of appropriations acts. There are less than three calendar weeks until
shutdown. Never mind counting up legislative days - it becomes very depressing. |
| The "accidental" shutdown also needs to be
considered. Start to dust off your furlough plans, and determine who must report to
work regardless. The rest of you, plan on an unplanned vacation. |
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September 7, 1999 - Ponderous Congress and "accidental" shutdowns.
| Congress is weighty. It has many procedures and many opinions. It moves
slowly. It is supposed to move slowly, and it is so structured. (We cannot
afford too many fast movers in the government, taking rash actions; we have the Executive
for that.) However, the simple inability to move quickly may lead to one or more
shutdowns. Although there may be action to enact one or more continuing resolutions
or appropriations bills, there may not be enough time to do this before the end of
September. |
| In addition to the intractability of the issues directly related to the budget, such as
the spending and tax cut plans, there are many distractions. The distractions,
ranging from natural disasters and East Timor to the credibility of the attorney general,
all require attention from Congress, and may lead to hearings and legislation. This,
of course, is more fun than dealing with budget issues. Any or all of these factors
can lead to a failure to enact a CR by September 30, which
failure to act would lead to an automatic shutdown. |
| So there could be good will, no overt intention to close the government, and much
movement to avoid a shutdown, but it may still come about. Although there are good
reasons why Congress should act slowly, at this stage its ponderousness is not a good
characteristic. |
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September 1, 1999 - Where are appropriations?
| Appropriations are caught in tropical storm Dennis' winds, churning off the East Coast,
waiting for some sort of action at the highest levels to change the 1997 budget deal.
As with Dennis, there is no way to tell where it will end up, and the chance of
serious damage is always with us. We can all hope for some rationality, but we
cannot be assured of it. Too much is riding on the dreams built upon the sands of
the 1997 budget deal. Perhaps Dennis will wash away this foundation and allow the
players to start from scratch. |
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