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October 1999 opinionis were:
October 31/November 4, 1999 - Wars of
attrition, including budget wars, are tiring and boring. Enough for this observer.
The tricks and posturing are getting to be too much.
October 26, 1999 - What is
waste? Is it 10% of your budget? The true nature of waste and
its causes.
October 24, 1999 - Shutdown? The
issues don't go away.
October 20, 1999 - New CR, but issues
with FY 2000 appropriations remain. Vetoes powerful incentive, as is legacy.
October 17, 1999 - Major issues with
FY 2000 appropriations remain. Vetoes, new CR in the works. Shutdown for
some in late October?
October 31/November 4, 1999 - Wars of attrition, including
budget wars, are tiring and boring. Enough for this observer.
 | Attrition continues. More vetoes, more intransigence, more brinkmanship (after
all, the current CR lasts for one more day), and more personal points being scored with
appropriations actions. Eventually, they will all get tired and go home, with severe
programmatic consequences few keep in mind at this point. Let's hope the voters
remember next year. |
| The President and Congress are engaged in a war of attrition, with each side referring
to tricky numbers to make its case. The bright side is that they keep passing CRs to
avoid shutdowns. The dismal side is that they are resorting to things such as
seemingly small cuts (1% now) to make the numbers meet an artificial value that is pure
trickery. |
| It is more productive (and a happier thought) to concentrate on the operating plans and
the FY 2001 and FY 2002 processes. The operating planning process is going to be
interesting since even the agencies which have appropriations acts do not know what they
have - the effect of across the board cuts will have to be assessed after they come, if at
all. But operating planning is closer to reality and real life than is the virtual
war of attrition being waged on the basis of fantastic numbers that address no issue of
concern to real people. |
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October 26, 1999 - What is waste? Is it 10% of your
budget? The answer below.
| Of course is not 10% of your personal budget! How could I possibly even think of
it! Because you are frugal and a sound manager of your money, and you only spend on
those thinks that you absolutely need and must have. So I apologize for even asking
the question. But I am sure that you will agree that your neighbor or maybe your
brother in law manage to waste 10% or more of their budgets. It is plain for all to
see! |
| The same type of thinking is going on in Congress. It is interesting that the ones
making these statements are not the ones who deal with appropriations day to day, but the
leadership with a political ax to grind. It is simple to state that any level of cut
in a program or budget will have no programmatic effect because it will only come out of
the 10% budgeted for "waste" that we all know everybody else's budget has.
Another cheap trick. |
| Where have all these people been in the last five years? The Congressional
majority has been passing appropriations and holding oversight hearings and carrying out
investigations (even impeaching the President) since 1995. They appropriated for FY
1996, FY 1997, FY 1998, FY 1999, and now for FY 2000, and they still state that they left
10% "waste" in the agencies? Not only should they not take their pay
raise, but they should return their paychecks. They have not done their
jobs, or they don't mean what they say. There should be 0% waste left in a
budget after five years of legislating appropriations. |
| Waste, unfortunately, does exist. But in this one the President is right. It
is the "earmarks" that the Representatives and the Senators write into the
legislation and the reports that is the waste. Waste is a ship that the Navy does
not need nor want, but the Senator does; a training facility for converting engines to
alternative fuels that no one uses, but the Senator wants; the memorial highway that has
no economic justification, but the Representative wants. Unfortunately, this waste
is enshrined in the legislation, and programs are to be cut "across the board"
to pay for this waste. This is not funny. It is your money. |
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October 24, 1999 - Shutdown? The issues don't go away.
| The budget issues remain the same, and there does not seem to be much progress.
Tricks are in the works. An "across the board" cut of 1.4% is contemplated
by the House leadership to balance the books. This may not sound like much.
The House leadership even makes jokes about the effect. However, when coupled with
pay raises and the large number of earmarks and other mandated funding, it translates into
serious problems for many agencies and many operating components. It is a trick. |
| Another trick is to pretend that by calling something an emergency it does not
"dip" into the Social Security surplus. To the extent that spending
exceeds the revenues raised by non-Social Security taxes and other sources of revenue, it
is using the Social Security surplus. Calling it an emergency does not make a
separate, magical source of funds available. This fact is glossed over, and the 1.4%
cut assumes that it is a valid budgeting method. It is another trick. |
| Both the Administration and Congress are engaging in tricks. The unfortunate
consequence will be that nothing will be settled, grandstanding will prevail, and
shutdowns will take place. I guess that the leadership in Congress and the
Administration wants to see what happens as the shutdowns come about since the last
experience has been forgotten. It looks like the lessons have to be learned every
four years or so. Or perhaps they are getting into the Halloween spirit a little
early - scaring everyone the week before. |
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October 20, 1999 - New CR, but issues with FY 2000
appropriations remain. Vetoes powerful incentive, as is legacy.
| We have a new CR (#2 so far), for another eight days, so the issue of a shutdown is put
off. Meanwhile, the President and the Congressional majority seem to have found a
way to speak with each other without the number of insults exceeding the number of words
exchanged. It looks to me that the specter of what legacy will be left by this
Congress and this President may have something to do with this. But the issues are
still the same, and the whole thing has to add up. So look for some tax increase,
and for some revisiting of appropriations already enacted. And maybe there will be a
deal before there is a need for another CR. |
| The President is retiring, the majority leader is retiring, and I am sure that others
face the specter of being retired by the voters. Leaving a string of meaningless
shutdowns as a legacy may not look so good once you are thinking about what historians
will write about you. Having their front running presidential hopeful shun them may
have also sent a message to the majority in Congress. Perhaps they will start to
work on what makes sense to most Americans - keep a good thing going, and make sure that
when I visit, the Washington Monument it is not closed. |
| Of course, a long string of promised vetoes is in the background. This fact is the
"900 pound gorilla in the closet." There is no way that this Congress can
look good with vetoed appropriations, especially when the President uses each as an
opportunity to make his case, and make it well. No sense in continuing fights with
large gorillas. Even those who cannot add numbers understand this. |
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October 17, 1999 - Major issues with FY 2000 appropriations
remain. Vetoes, new CR in the works. Shutdown for some in late October?
| Budget process and appropriations developments have been tracked by the press, for all
to see. There have been no changes in the basic attitudes of the players - the
President has been winning, and the congressional majority still wants him to lose.
But there have been compromises, and a few appropriations have moved to the point of
acceptability to the President. Count this as a loss for the majority in
Congress. All this is a mixed blessing for the Federal establishment. For
those with enacted appropriations, a shutdown has been put off, and they won't have to
consider it until next year. But they are not home free yet. |
| What remains to be done is not simply adopting a few appropriations bills. The
reason there are some still pending (such as Foreign Operations, Interior, and Labor/HHS)
is that there are major issues, which may draw vetoes. And there is still the little
matter of making the numbers add up. All this is exacerbated by the Congressional
need to win, or to make it look as if the President didn't win. |
| Making the numbers add up is not a trivial matter. To make it all look as if
Congress did not dip into the sacred "Social Security surplus" (in spite of CBO
so stating) they may well decree an "across the board" cut. What such a
cut means is not clear, and there probably are over a dozen interpretations. But if
such a cut is imposed it will affect the appropriations already enacted, and those who
thought they are over the worst in the process will be back in the thick of it. And
imposing such cuts will reopen issues that are assumed as being settled for the
appropriations already enacted. So the progress made to date in enacting five out of
thirteen appropriations is misleading. |
| My bottom line? A new continuing resolution is on the way to buy time, and there
is still a chance for a shutdown of significant parts of the Federal government in late
October. |
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