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Opinion: January 3, 2000
New Meaning of Y2K for the Budget Community
It looks like we made it through the Y2K problem for computers
without a major problem, but for those involved with the Federal budget year 2000 will
bring a large number of issues, which will keep us busy. Y2K will not go away, it
will simply take on different meaning. (And I will try not to use Y2K after this
opinion.) Budget Y2K will not be fun, but it will be interesting. The issues
include:
 | Presidential initiatives for a legacy. This is Bill Clinton's last year as
President, and the FY 2001 budget submitted by February 7, 2000 will be the last one over
which he has full control of the debate, and the last one for which he can wield the
powers of the Presidency, such as the veto and access to the public. The FY 2002
budget submission and process will be controlled by his successor. |
| Presidential initiatives and other actions aimed at making sure that the Democratic
nominees, for President and many other offices (such as Senators and Representatives as
well as state legislatures which will redistrict states after the 2000 census), have all
the advantages possible for an electoral win in November 2000. This is a part of
assuring a legacy. Democrats are more likely to continue Clinton's legacy than would
Republicans. In the budget process, this will play out in a couple of ways:
 | For FY 2001 budget submission and processing, the agenda will be
dictated by the debate in Congress that leads up to the elections in November:
 | Time for action will be even more constrained
than it was for FY 2000 because of the Republican and Democratic conventions, and the need
for members of Congress to go home to run for reelection or to help others in their party
get elected. Congress did not complete its work in time last year. It will be
even more difficult this year, and the fiscal year (and potential shutdowns) starts less
than six weeks before Election Day. The President will be in a powerful position to
make the majority's prospects miserable. |
| The debate will be focused on political issues and how
to better present a (partisan) position to the electorate. Do not expect much
statesmanship, consensus, or resolution of issues. These will have to wait until
next year, with the November winner to set a new agenda. |
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| For FY 2000 budget execution and program implementation, the Administration
will want to maximize opportunities to make Democratic candidates more desirable
for the voters. There are many ways to do this. On the other hand, the majority
in Congress will want to keep this in check and do its own to help its party;
there are also many ways of doing this. FY 2000 is the last full year which is to be
executed by Bill Clinton's Administration and in which his appointees control operating
plans - FY 2001 will be partially executed by his successor's people. Expect
more strange or new projects to be funded in a rush, and more GAO
investigations and oversight hearings. |
| Both the FY 2001 budget formulation process and the FY 2000 execution process will be
overshadowed by the need to address the fall-out of the FY 2000 budget and appropriations
decisions:
| FY 2001 funding and program will be constrained by the tricks used to make the FY 2000
numbers come out, which tricks will be difficult to repeat for FY 2001. This will
reduce funding availability, especially with the 1997 caps still in place. Watch out
for even more imaginative tricks. |
| FY 2000 execution will be hampered by the various constraints imposed
by the tricks (such as postponed pay days), the large pay raises approved, the across the
board cuts, and the earmarks with an eye to November 2000. |
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| If all this is not enough to worry about, you should also expect renewed emphasis on
getting rid of "waste." This trick can be used every year,
without fear of being contradicted. (Remember that the reasoning for an across the
board cut for FY 2000 was that there was a large amount of waste in Federal
agencies so a cut would have no effect on programs.) If waste is 10%, then
you can surely expect cuts of this magnitude to make the numbers come out - and this is
likely to happen in a rush in October. What can you do about this? Other than
praying for deliverance, you can:
| Make sure that your performance goals and measures measure up
to GAO's expectations. (For guidance on what GAO expects, see
GAO/GGD-00-10, "Managing for Results: Strengthening Regulatory Agencies'
Performance Management Practices.") Having good, accepted measures and meeting
them is the way to prove that you are not "wasting" resources. |
| Make your case at the oversight and appropriations hearings. There is still time
to make sure that your justification documents and testimony are directly related to the
performance measures, and that you point out the direct relationship between your
work (and resources) and the benefits to the American public. |
| Even if your performance measures do not meet GAO's standards and
Senator Thompson criticized your agency for failure to properly implement GPRA, you can
point out the direct relationship between your work (and resources) and the benefits to
the American public, and show that this relationship will be used to update and improve
you official performance measures. |
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| Budget Y2K will continue to present challenges to the Federal budget community. I
am sure that all of you will be able to meet them, including those sure to arise which I
have not listed. Hope you have a good year, and that some of these thoughts help you
to be ready for whatever the process throws at you. |
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