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Opinions for June 5, 2000: Control - out with the new, in with the
old
 | Congress has rejected making changes in the budget process, throwing out the new and
deciding to stick with the tried and true. So with no changes in the process, we can
- with some confidence - foresee how the rest of the year will play out, with the
paramount consideration being the Presidential election. These considerations affect
FY 2000 budget execution, FY 2001 budget decisions, including potential vetoes, and its
execution (which is set to start before the election), and FY 2002 budget formulation. |
| Hallmark for the process will be control, to assure that only what is
advantageous from the point of view of the Presidential election takes place. All
players want to make sure that their position prevails in the Presidential contest, and no
actions will be taken without full consideration of its impact on the electoral college.
The Executive and the Congressional minority will take actions to assure that the
Democratic candidate is elected President, and the Congressional majority will take
actions to make sure that the Republican candidate is elected. |
| For agencies and operating components this translates into direct control from those
running the Democratic presidential race.
 | Many organizations will be on auto pilot, doing the minimally necessary
to survive and not rock the boat - this is the way it will be because of high level
political decisions. It makes no sense for an agency to be allowed to take an action
that may offend or alienate an important block of voters - best to wait until after the
election. For these organizations, it will be a slow and torpid summer - a good
time to clean out the files and prepare briefing materials for the new administration
that will come in January 2001. But, if you are in one of these organizations, be
prepared to urgently prepare briefing materials on whatever hot issue happens to
appear on the horizon related to your agency - demands for this type of work will increase
with increasing political nervousness. |
| Some organizations will be very busy, having been chosen as responsible
for programs and activities that will support the Executive's preferences, or that will be
asked to get urgent things over with so that they will have a minimal effect or won't be
remembered after the summer. Sometimes this will mean a hectic pace, not always
rational or understood. Sometimes the actions will most likely hurt rather
than help the Executive's cause, but then a small group attempting
control cannot always get it right. Frustrating for analysts, but this is
the way it is in human affairs. |
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| All this makes budget work interesting, and one of the reasons why budget people seldom
take long vacations in the summer. And remember that FY 2002 budget preparation will
be underway at the same time, with tight controls in place to make sure that nothing
related to this process affects the Presidential election adversely - but things
may leak out if they are deemed to benefit the electoral process. Also keep
in mind that FY 2001 actions in Congress and its interaction with the Executive will play
out at the same time. |
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