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Opinions for May 8, 2000: By the Book -
Budget process is unfolding as spelled out in the standard script
 | For FY 2001, Congress and the Executive are making sure that the budget process is
carried out according to the well established procedures that have been in place for some
time now. It is as if they were following written instructions from a book, and
there cannot be deviation. It makes no difference that this may not be rational
behavior. "The Book" dictates that it be done this way. Consider the
following:
 | Posturing is underway. Both sides are making statements as to the
severe consequences of adopting the other side's budget position. |
| Sacred cows abound, and they are highlighted by both sides. For
example, defense must be increased, yet there is no rationale stated for so doing (maybe
Cuba will land soon?). Numbers of teachers must be increased (but what about what
happens outside of school, or during more than 80% of children's time spent outside the
school?). |
| Fantasy dominates analysis. The 1997 caps are still in place;
this results in projecting a large official surplus. No one believes that the caps
are the levels at which funds can be or will be appropriated, so the surplus is either
nonexistent or significantly smaller than touted. |
| Horror story telling is underway, and Halloween is far off.
Communities across the country are being told that unless the President's budget is
adopted there will be dire consequences. |
| Threats are being issued. Appropriations will be vetoed, bringing
about a government shutdown just before elections. |
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| All of this is as if the scripts written in prior years must be followed, and there is
no way, or no desire, to change them. This will lead to the same showdown in October
as in the past, with the difference that there will be the pressure of the Presidential
election, which may or may not help to resolve the issues. Another interesting show
to watch if you do not have to manage a budget for an agency, or if you do not have to
manage a program. Reading my prior opinions on the budget process as it unfolded in
the past is a good predictor as to how it will take place this year. |
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