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Opinions from the Analyst on Budget
Matters
 | Current
Events, Developments, What is Coming Up, and
Why: What is going
on in the overall Federal budget process that
affects agency budgets and budget work, what it
means, why it may be happening, and what needs to
be done. Topic for
September
4, 2000: How will the next President affect
the budget process? (Past topics are
in the archives - click for
links to them.) |
September 4,
2000: What will the next President do that will
affect the budget process?
| I believe it is
time to speculate about how budget and
appropriations will change with a new
President. Although neither of the two
major candidates has stated what they would do as
far as process is concerned, we can make some
guesses as to what may happen. |
| As far as
having an overall Federal budget is concerned, I
don't think that either of the two candidates
will do much, or care much, about it. A
budget that actually sets how much is
spent and how much is collected (in taxes and
other revenues) will continue to be an
irrelevancy, as it has been this
year. Neither candidate is likely to want
to tangle with a process and system that is
widely perceived as unnecessary when there is no
deficit. Why enforce procedures and
requirements that are painful when there is no
gain? Work will go on using whatever
numbers are convenient. Whatever can be
safely ignored will be ignored, and most
overarching issues will not be addressed.
This is not to mean that there will not be calculations
made as to the overall effect of various
proposals - they will simply be glossed
over and de-emphasized except when
focusing on them would serve a policy priority. |
| Without the
need for and desire to focus on a Federal budget,
the action will be on appropriations. I
expect that there will be some differences in
this regard between a President Bush and a
President Gore. |
| I would expect
that biennial budgeting could get a new
life under President Bush. This
has been mostly a Republican issue. Texas
has a biennial system with which Governor Bush is
familiar. He may also appoint to his
administration people with a background in Texas
budgeting, which would result in a climate more
favorable to a biennial appropriations
process. President Gore would be
less inclined to a biennial budget, both
for practical and policy reasons. Some of
the staunchest defenders of Congressional power
and prerogatives, including not yielding the
annual review of appropriations, are
Democrats. It would not be in the interests
of a Democratic President to antagonize these
people. Furthermore, an activist President
such as Gore would need an annual process for
reviewing and approving resource allocations -
new policy priorities need to be funded, and
annual appropriations best serve the needs of new
policies and priorities. |
| Under President
Bush the appropriations process would be less
active than under President Gore. With
little emphasis on domestic programs that require
Federal activity, and with a focus on large tax
cuts that imply reduced Federal spending, a Bush
Presidency will result in agency budgets that
may, at best, keep up with inflation.
There would be little new programmatic emphasis
associated with the appropriations process, and
little incentive to do much as part of
appropriations. Under President Gore we
should expect more action on appropriations - his
policy initiatives would be reflected in major
changes in agency budgets, resulting in greater
appropriations interest and activity. There
would also exist greater opportunities for policy
protagonists to attempt to influence outcomes
through appropriations. |
| These general
trends would heighten if Congressional majority
is the same party as the President's party.
An interesting situation would develop if
Congress is controlled by the opposition
party. President Bush with a Democratic
Congress or President Gore with a Republican
Congress would result in fireworks
- an interesting but cruel outcome for agency
budgets. |
If you have thoughts on these matters
that you would like to share, please write me at Laszlo@budgetanalyst.com.
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Occasional treatment of aspects of budget and
program analysis, as viewed by Laszlo Bockh.
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| Policies
and schedules for Opinions
 | Opinions
deal with matters that affect the budgets
and budget-related work of operating
components of agencies. Opinions
are my interpretations of what events
mean for operating components and
managers, and reflect my views on what
may be going on.
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| Opinions
are updated every two weeks or so,
usually on Monday afternoons.
Sometimes opinions may address
overarching issues or concepts that
include my perspectives. If there
is little worth remarking on, an opinion
piece may not be published. The
analyst takes Federal holidays.
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