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Budget Analyst -- Federal Agency Money Matters

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Personnel Compensation and Benefits Calculations and Analysis

The key cost element of programs is people.  Accurately calculating the costs of the staff of an organization is an essential skill of a competent budget analyst.  Proper analysis of staffing costs is the foundation of the contribution that budgeting makes to management of an agency and its operating components.  Conclusions reached from analysis lead to management action.  A detailed example with explanations is provided, as well as examples of payroll cost items as well as an example of what can happen when it is not done well.

 

bullet Short of laying off or firing the staff, there is little choice but to pay them.  Managers must deal with this fact.  Poor management decisions result if the payroll cost data in the budget is incorrect or presented in a misleading fashion, or if during budget execution changes in payroll costs are not properly addressed.  No manager wants to be in a position to have to fire people because the budget analyst failed to properly calculate the cost of the payroll for the budget, or to calculate the costs of existing and prospective staff for the remainder of the current fiscal year.

 

bullet The cost of the existing staff and the funds available to cover these costs determine whether or not people will be hired, whether or not sufficient staff will be available to do the work, and the amount and type of other costs (such as equipment or contracts) that can be incurred.  Although it can be argued that staff and its costs are simply another factor in an organization's operations, this is rarely the case.  Staffing tends to be a fixed cost because there is little that management can do to reduce the costs from one year to the next.  This is especially true in the governmental context and in large organizations.

 

bullet Payroll costs estimates can be looked at in two categories:  (1) To support the budget formulation process, and (2) for budget execution, including operating plan development and control of funds as the operating year unfolds.  Both types of calculations involve research into the facts as well as analysis of the consequences related to the facts uncovered by the research.

 

bullet Budget formulation payroll computations are done far in advance of the start of the fiscal year, and require analyses that look into the far future.  Techniques used for these projections have to take into account uncertainties associated with a future that must involve a large number of assumptions.  The salient point about a formulation-related payroll computation is that it is completely a projection into the future, where assumptions dominate the numbers.  The analyst has to be able to project into the future, and think about every element of the analysis as happening in the future, i.e., every fact uncovered in the research for analysis must be adjusted to conditions that are likely to exist in the future.  Present conditions may or may not be relevant.  They need to be evaluated and adjusted to the likely reality of the future.

 

bullet The starting point for a payroll computation for budget development is the existing staffing level.  A careful computation of the existing staff's payroll costs is readily possible by using information from the accounting system, which would allow establishing a base level of payroll costs for a specified date.  Extending this base level to the budget year or years being addressed may require extensive adjustments and analysis.

 

bullet Adjustments to the base level are made to account for factors such as changes in staffing, pay rates, attrition, promotions, benefits, and non-recurring events, such as a major reorganization that may result in transferring people or major severance or other termination costs.

 

bullet For the rare cases in which the payroll is to be projected without an accounting basis, such as for a new agency or in a system with chaotic accounting procedures, the starting point has to be determined by the analyst in consultation with management.  The initial basis for the base calculation can be averages based on fragmentary accounting data, a schedule of positions to be available (with salaries), a listing of all employees with current salaries, or even a person to person census to find out what they make.   Whatever the basis for establishing the base, additional work needs to be done to make sure that all factors that affect the payroll are accounted for, including benefits and unusual costs.

 

bullet Click for an example of a payroll computation for budget projections or operating planning, annotated with explanations.

 

bullet Budget execution related payroll computations use a range of techniques, some similar to those used for budget formulation in that they deal with a distant future and others based more directly on actual payroll data, with little uncertainty in the estimates.  As the fiscal year goes on, less and less of the payroll numbers are based estimates and more and more of the numbers represent data from the accounting system as people are paid and benefit costs are incurred.

 

bullet Doing the computations for the payroll is, however, not all there is to doing budget analysis for the payroll of an organization.  An analysis of the meaning of the numbers must be performed.  There are implications associated with the payroll figures, and the analyst must identify these implications for management action.  The types of questions to be addressed depend on the budget phase involved, i.e., formulation or execution, and include:

 

bullet Are we budgeting enough to cover the payroll for the likely level of staff we will have?   Are we being overoptimistic in our assumptions about equipment and other purchases we will be able to make by understating our payroll costs?  Will the payroll exceed the budgeted amount?  Will it be under?  Is the staffing level sufficient to meet program objectives?  Are there actions in process that will adversely affect the budget, such as mass promotions?  What will be the consequences of a surplus (or deficit) in the payroll amounts for future years?  Should actions be taken to slow down (or speed up) hiring?

 

bullet There are many other questions that could come up, depending on the organization's situation, staffing, and budget.  The analyst must be alert to the full range of implications for management of the significance of the payroll numbers, and must take action to communicate the significance of the results of the analysis.

 

bullet Presentation of the results of the computations for payroll is as important as the computations and analyses themselves.  Management will not understand what the numbers mean unless they are presented in an understandable fashion that highlights:

 

bullet Significant factors that drive the estimate (e.g., a reduced attrition rate that may result in exceeding the budget), and

 

bullet Actions that can be taken to make a difference (e.g., reprogram funds into the payroll account to take care of the deficit, or stop hiring so the funds budgeted for new staff become available to cover the projected deficit).  The analyst must develop a sound understanding of the practical actions that management can take, and present these actions to management backed up by the data that led to the analytical conclusions.

 

bullet Presentation of the information is important for both formulation and execution, but it is more critical to management for budget execution purposes since there is little time for corrective action once the fiscal year is started.

 

bullet If the analyst has done a full and complete research, analytical and presentation job, she will have contributed greatly to the efficient management of the organization, and will become a valued member of the management team.

 

Copyright © 1998-2007 by Laszlo Bockh and Mary Blakeslee. All rights reserved.  Last revised:  11/24/07 01:51 PM. All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.  The logo and BudCast™ images used herein were obtained from IMSI's MasterClips/MasterPhotos© Collection, 1895 Francisco Blvd. East, San Rafael, CA 94901-5506, USA